How accurate is GasCast?

Every day, GasCast checks the weather models' forecasts against NOAA's measured degree days, and grades its storage estimate against EIA's number every Thursday. Here are the results, updated automatically. No other gas weather service publishes this.

How to read this

• Average error is how far off each model's daily national HDD + CDD forecast was, on average. Lower is better.
• "Just use normal" is the error you'd get by assuming every day is a normal day. A forecast is only useful if it beats this.
• Skill is how much better than "just use normal" each model was. 50% means half the error.
• Forecasts get less accurate the further out they go. That's true for every weather service.

Full method: How GasCast works.